On December 30, 2025, an analyst report reaffirmed the positive outlook for ASML. The report stated that ASML’s premium valuation is justified by strong semiconductor capital expenditure (CapEx) momentum. Key customers, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, are driving this spending into 2026.
Demand for advanced nodes, specifically for AI and high-performance logic, drives this CapEx. This trend supports ASML’s near-monopoly position in EUV lithography systems.
Analysts anticipate significant headwinds from China. Sales there are expected to decline in 2026 following a surge in 2024 and 2025, which occurred ahead of new export controls. However, strong growth projected in other regions will offset this weakness.
The base-case projection calls for total revenue growth of around 5.3% for 2026. The market showed no significant reaction, as the analysis reiterated the current consensus.