Moody's released its 2026 outlook for the U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market, anticipating generally stable conditions. The firm expects lower short-term interest rates and slow but steady economic growth will support the market. These factors ease refinancing for many commercial real estate properties.
Despite the overall stability, Moody's highlighted persistent risks, particularly within the office and retail sectors. Weak demand in the office property market could lead to higher delinquencies in conduit deals.
The outlook suggests new deal volume will shift towards data centers and offices. However, rising leverage in new large and single-asset CMBS deals increases risk. This risk persists unless credit protections improve.