Moody's Ratings forecasts a decline in real consumer spending growth to approximately 1.5% in 2026. The report, released on December 15, 2025, suggests spending will continue to support the U.S. economy overall.
Analysts state that a softening labor market, cooling wage gains, and consumer affordability concerns will drive more cautious spending behavior.
The analysis identifies the retail and consumer durable goods industries as most vulnerable to the expected slowdown. Companies offering multi-tiered pricing and those aligning with consumer demand for value and convenience are better positioned for financial success.
Moody's does not anticipate a sharp deterioration in consumer fundamentals, provided unemployment rates remain stable.