Shares surged 5.4% in pre-market to $35.87 as investors reversed Monday's cautious selloff and placed bets ahead of On Holding's Q1 2026 earnings, due before the bell today. The Swiss sportswear maker enters this report at a crossroads: still one of the fastest-growing brands in athletic footwear, but trading far below its March highs amid tariff anxiety, a leadership shakeup, and a broader market rattled by geopolitical conflict.
• The Stock Has Cratered Since Its Last Report, and the Bar Is Low
ONON has declined roughly 25% since its last earnings release.
On dropped nearly 10% on March 3 after its 2026 guidance disappointed investors , and the slide continued. Analysts now expect just $0.27 EPS on $821.5 million in revenue, up from $0.21 and $726.6 million a year ago. That lowered bar could actually work in On's favor — a beat would validate the brand's resilience.
• Tariffs Are Baked In, But Any Relief Becomes a Profit Boost
On's 2026 gross margin guidance already incorporates 20% tariffs; any changes or refunds could provide further upside not included in current projections.
The company targets a full-year gross profit margin of at least 63.0% and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 18.5% and 19.0%. For shareholders, this means any tariff rollback goes straight to the bottom line — a rare asymmetric setup in consumer goods.
• New Leadership Adds Uncertainty at a Critical Moment
On March 25, On Holding named co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti as co-CEOs and promoted Scott Maguire to president and COO.
Meanwhile, incoming CFO Frank Sluis is set to join in May 2026. Two leadership changes during a volatile macro environment raises execution risk — investors will want clarity on strategic continuity.
• Wall Street Still Believes, But the Market Doesn't
Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 86% rate it Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus price target of $60.14 — nearly 70% above today's price. Options markets have priced in an earnings move of roughly ±9.7% , suggesting traders expect fireworks. On is still forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 24.5% and 14.9% per year , but the gap between analyst optimism and the stock's price signals deep investor skepticism about whether premium growth can survive a tougher consumer spending environment.
Today's report won't just be about the quarter — it will test whether On's brand strength can justify a rebound or whether the selloff has further to run.