S&P Global Mobility projects a downturn in the U.S. auto market for 2026. The firm anticipates a 2.5% decrease in sales, bringing total volume to approximately 15.89 million vehicles.
The forecast attributes the expected decline primarily to persistent affordability issues and high prices. S&P Global Mobility notes that consumer caution is already visible, and potential price adjustments by automakers could further dampen buyer interest.
Waning momentum in the electric vehicle (EV) sector also drives the forecast. Demand dropped significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a surge driven by expiring tax credits. S&P Global Mobility expects this EV market weakness to continue into the first half of 2026.
The analysis suggests auto industry growth will remain challenging. This trend will persist until vehicle prices decrease and demand for EVs stabilizes.