BofA Global Research updated its forecast on Monday, June 22, to project 75 basis points in Federal Reserve interest rate hikes during 2026. Analysts anticipate these rate increases will occur in September, October, and December.
This outlook replaces a previous forecast of no rate changes for the year. The revision follows resilient labor market data and expectations of a hawkish policy shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
BofA’s projection is more aggressive than the current market consensus of approximately 42 basis points in hikes. Following the 2026 increases, the bank expects the central bank to hold rates steady throughout 2027.