Oil prices eased as Iran allowed roughly 30 vessels — including Chinese tankers — through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the waterway was shut down in late February. WTI crude steadied just above $101 per barrel , while Brent held above $105 , both retreating from recent highs. The move coincides with a Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing and signals a possible off-ramp from what the IEA has called the "greatest global energy security challenge in history." But for anyone betting this crisis is over, the math says otherwise.
Thirty Ships Is a Gesture, Not a Fix. Even after repeated announcements that Hormuz was "open," real-time vessel traffic has sometimes fallen to as few as three ships per day, versus the 120–140 that normally pass through. Letting 30 vessels transit is symbolically important — it gives Beijing a win and lets Tehran project reasonableness — but it barely dents the 14 million barrels per day still shut in. Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines can reroute only about 2.6 million b/d , leaving the vast majority of Gulf oil stranded.
The Inventory Damage Is Already Done. Global observed inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March and another 117 million in April . The IEA says the market remains in deficit until Q4, and with stockpiles drawing at a record pace, more price swings are likely heading into peak summer demand.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Monday that if the strait stays blocked past mid-June, "normalization will last into 2027."
Trust, Not Tonnage, Is the Real Bottleneck. Tankers are turning back, shipping lines are refusing bookings, and insurance markets remain restrictive.
Even if Hormuz stays technically open, "its reliability premium has been permanently damaged." Shippers and insurers now price for volatility, not stability — that means structurally higher energy costs long after any ceasefire.
Diplomacy Offers Hope, but the Clock Is Ticking. Since the war began on Feb. 28, WTI and Brent have surged more than 45%.
The Dallas Fed estimates that a one-quarter closure would push WTI to around $110, while a two-quarter blockade could spike it to $132 by July. The Trump-Xi meeting may pressure Iran, but markets are pricing in months — not weeks — of disruption. For oil traders, the question isn't whether the strait reopens. It's whether enough oil flows through it fast enough to prevent the worst supply crunch in modern history.