A 2025 federal law will require states to verify Medicaid eligibility every six months. This mandate doubles the current annual frequency for adults aged 19-64 in the Affordable Care Act expansion population. The new rule takes effect in late 2026.
The Urban Institute projects between 2 million and 3.1 million people could lose coverage. Most disenrollments will likely result from procedural paperwork issues rather than actual ineligibility. This administrative churn threatens the membership totals and total revenue of managed care organizations like Centene.
Analysts warn that healthier individuals are the most likely to miss renewal notices. Their departure would leave Centene with a costlier, higher-risk member pool. This shift could compress profit margins in the company's core Medicaid segment.