Shares jumped as Coinbase emerged as the biggest winner from a bipartisan Senate compromise on stablecoin rewards, the single provision that had frozen landmark crypto legislation for months. With COIN at $200.95, up 5.1% and far outpacing Bitcoin's +1.46% gain, the market is pricing in regulatory clarity that remains deeply uncertain.
Coinbase Had the Most to Lose — and Got a Workable Deal
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong urged the Senate Banking Committee to "mark it up" — and his company had been at the center of the talks, with the most to lose from restrictions on stablecoin rewards.
The stakes are commercial: Coinbase reported $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue in 2025, much of it from rewards-driven distribution payments tied to its USDC partnership with Circle. The compromise preserves those activity-based rewards while banning passive yield that mimics bank interest — a structure that keeps Coinbase's key revenue engine intact.
The Compromise Removes One Roadblock but Not the Biggest Ones
Stablecoin rewards, ethics concerns, decentralized finance provisions, and dwindling Senate floor time all cast doubt on the bill's prospects; one crypto industry source estimated its chances of passage at just 15% to 25%.
Galaxy estimated the chance at 50%.
Since 2026 is an election year, Congress usually stops passing big laws by summer so members can campaign. Investors celebrating today should note the deal clears only one of several hurdles.
The Stock's Valuation Already Assumes a Lot of Good News
At around $191, Coinbase traded about 19% below the consensus analyst target of roughly $235.
But one valuation model described shares as trading at a premium of around 490% above estimated fair value. That gap highlights the tension: Wall Street sees upside, but fundamental metrics struggle to support the price. A bill that codifies stablecoin rewards would protect a multi-billion-dollar revenue line, but a bill that dies in committee would leave Coinbase navigating the same regulatory gray area that has constrained growth for years.
A Mid-May Markup Is the Next Catalyst to Watch
Industry sources say "momentum is building for a markup" that could happen in mid-May.
But the yield compromise does not resolve the bill entirely — Senator Tillis has separately demanded an ethics provision restricting White House officials from promoting digital assets. If the committee hearing slips again, today's pop could reverse just as fast.