Deckers Slides Toward Wells Fargo's $90 Target — Is the HOKA Growth Story Losing Its Stride?

Shares of Deckers Outdoor fell 4.0% to $96.39 on May 11, extending a three-day slide that has erased $6.33 per share since May 7 — and dragging the stock ever closer to Wells Fargo's freshly issued $90 price target. The drop stands out: the S&P 500 was up 0.12% on the day, making this move entirely company-specific.

  • A Major Bank Says Deckers Is Worth 7% Less Than It Trades For Today

Wells Fargo downgraded Deckers to Underweight from Equal Weight on May 8, slashing its price target to $90 from $115.

That $90 target — the lowest on the Street — now implies roughly 6.6% further downside from the current $96.39.

Among 39 Wall Street analysts, the median target sits at $129, with a range of $90 to $184 — meaning Wells Fargo is a clear outlier. But outlier calls have a way of resetting the floor for nervous holders.

  • The Thesis: Weight-Loss Drugs Hurt Sneaker Makers, Help Clothing Brands

Wells Fargo argued that the rapid adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy is reshaping consumer spending, favoring clothing over footwear and athletic wear.

The firm estimates the trend added roughly 100 basis points to apparel spending growth in 2024 and 120 in 2025, projecting continued lifts through 2028. In plain English: people losing weight buy new jeans, not new running shoes. That's a headwind for Deckers' two biggest brands.

  • HOKA's Growth Engine Is Cooling — and Nike Wants Its Share Back

Bernstein noted that HOKA growth has slowed from 24% in fiscal year 2025 to mid-teens in fiscal year 2026 guidance.

Wells Fargo described competitive pressure from Nike's efforts to recapture share in specialty running as a key risk. UGG growth decelerated from 13% to mid-single digits, while the stock's price-to-earnings ratio — the price investors pay per dollar of profit — has contracted from the high-teens to around 14 times.

  • The Numbers Still Look Solid, Which Is What Makes This a Debate

Deckers has a $15.2 billion market cap, generates $5.37 billion in trailing revenue with a 19.3% profit margin, 31.4% operating margin, and a 39.7% return on equity.

Bernstein said shares now appear fairly valued at a low-teens earnings ratio and no longer sees significant downside. That split verdict — one bank says sell, another says the worst is priced in — leaves investors choosing between a slowing growth story and genuinely best-in-class profitability.

The next catalyst is Deckers' fiscal Q4 earnings report. Until then, $90 is the gravitational pull, and $129 is the consensus dream.