FICO Score 10T outperforms VantageScore, leading in mortgage risk prediction

FICO released a white paper from independent actuarial firm Milliman regarding credit score accuracy. The study identifies FICO Score 10T as the most predictive tool for evaluating mortgage default risk.

This research represents the first independent, head-to-head comparison between FICO Score 10T and VantageScore 4.0. The analysis utilized a large sample of U.S. mortgage originations spanning from 2011 to 2023.

FICO Score 10T consistently predicted defaults more accurately across all loan types, including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA loans. FICO is using these results to demonstrate superior risk differentiation to lenders and investors.