Shares of GLD jumped 3.2% to $427.65 as two powerful forces converged: President Trump signaled a pause in military escalation against Iran, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell told markets the central bank would likely ride out the energy shock rather than raise rates. For gold holders, this was the best single-day move in weeks — but the rally sits on shaky ground.
Powell Told Markets He Won't Fight the Oil Spike — That's a Green Light for Gold
Powell said the Fed is "inclined to look past the energy shock from the war in Iran," noting that supply disruptions have historically been short-lived and that longer-term inflation expectations remain "well anchored."
Speaking at Harvard, he said energy shocks "tend to come and go pretty quickly" and monetary maneuvers work over the longer term. Translation: no rate hikes to fight surging gas prices. That keeps real yields (bond returns after inflation) suppressed, which makes gold — an asset that pays no interest — more attractive relative to bonds.
Gold Is Still Down 20% From Its January Peak — This Is a Bounce, Not a Breakout
Gold reached its all-time high of $5,595.42 on January 29, 2026.
That January peak of $5,589 per ounce means today's price represents a more than 20% decline.
International spot gold is currently trading at approximately $4,472.50 per ounce. GLD's recent close prices tell the same story: $404 on March 24, then a volatile climb to today's $427. This is a relief rally within a brutal correction, not a return to highs.
The Iran War Hasn't Actually De-Escalated — Markets Are Trading on Hope
Three weeks after the war began, it has "no end in sight," and markets are "so numb" to the president's habit of walking back threats to calm markets "that they barely react to what he says anymore."
The average gallon of gas in the U.S. rose to $3.99, according to AAA.
Trump paused energy strikes to April 6 — a deadline, not a deal. If talks collapse, gold could spike further; if they succeed, the safe-haven bid evaporates.
Big Banks Are Still Bullish Long-Term, But the Path Is Treacherous
JPMorgan forecasts gold reaching $6,300 by year-end 2026, while Wells Fargo upgraded its target to $6,100–$6,300.
Central bank buying is expected at around 755 tonnes in 2026 — lower than the 1,000+ tonne peaks but still elevated versus pre-2022 averages. Structural demand remains strong. But with the Fed holding rates at 3.5%–3.75% and Powell's term expiring May 15 , a leadership transition adds another wildcard. Shareholders should treat today's pop as a positioning signal, not a verdict.