Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15%. This marks a significant reduction from the 30% forecast issued in March.
Chief economist Jan Hatzius attributed the improved outlook to a robust labor market and easing geopolitical risks. A U.S.-Iran peace agreement has specifically reduced the threat of an oil price spike.
Goldman raised its second-half 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2%. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates through the remainder of this year. However, the firm noted the Fed may consider a rate increase later in 2026.
Goldman also trimmed its year-end price forecast for gold.