Shares of Intuitive Machines climbed 4% to $30.89 on June 9 as investors continued digesting the company's selection for the U.S. Space Force's Andromeda program — a deal with a headline ceiling of $6.2 billion over 10 years. But the stock remains down roughly 34% from its May 28 high of $46.75, caught between genuine contract wins and a barrage of near-term headwinds that have rattled shareholders.
• A $6.2 Billion Headline That Comes With Fine Print
Intuitive Machines was selected for the Andromeda IDIQ — a 10-year contract with a $6.24 billion ceiling — by the Space Force's Space Systems Command, its first major win as a combined entity after acquiring satellite-builder Lanteris. But IDIQ means "Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity": the company is now eligible to compete for individual task orders, but the money only flows once specific work is awarded. Being on the contract isn't the same as winning work.
The Space Force awarded the Andromeda vehicle to 14 companies — including Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Northrop Grumman, and Anduril — meaning Intuitive Machines faces stiff competition on every bid.
• Record Revenue, But a Sky-High Price Tag
The company reported record Q1 2026 revenue of $186.7 million and expanded its contract backlog to approximately $1.1 billion.
For full-year 2026, management guides to $900 million–$1 billion in revenue with positive adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, and non-cash charges). Yet LUNR currently trades at an exceptionally elevated multiple of nearly 40 times sales — a valuation that leaves zero room for contract stumbles.
• Dilution Is a Recurring Cost of Growth
On June 3, the stock cratered as investors confronted the prospect of about 9.1% dilution, with as many as 14.7 million new shares being added to the existing 160.5 million outstanding via a $500 million at-the-market stock sale. This is not the first time — a $175 million private placement earlier this year triggered a similar selloff, showing the shareholder base is sensitive to dilution. The capital funds acquisitions and satellite-building, but it effectively taxes existing holders each time.
• SpaceX's IPO Could Be Friend or Foe
The broader space sector has been pulling back after an extended rally fueled by SpaceX's imminent IPO, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. Experts warn investors may rotate capital away from publicly traded space stocks and directly into SpaceX.
Roth Capital, however, reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $75 price target — more than double today's price — banking on Intuitive Machines' diversified lunar-to-defense pipeline to hold investor interest regardless.
The bottom line: Andromeda validates Intuitive Machines' national-security pivot, but shareholders are still paying for growth in stock rather than profits — and 13 rivals are chasing the same dollars.