Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, forecasts a greater than 50% probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months if high oil prices persist.
U.S. oil production and consumption remain nearly balanced. The economy remains vulnerable to global energy market volatility.
A Moody’s analytical model calculated a 49% recession probability before recent oil transit conflicts. Zandi expects the next update to reach 50% or higher.