Moody's Chief Economist Says US Job Market Signals a Recession May Have Already Begun

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi states the U.S. economy may have entered a recession. The "Vicious Cycle Index" recently signaled this downturn.

The index mirrors the Sahm Rule. The Sahm Rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points from its 12-month low.

Zandi reports minimal job growth over the past year. The healthcare sector currently prevents overall job losses.

Zandi describes recessionary risks as "uncomfortably high." This assessment excludes potential impacts from recent international hostilities.