MicroStrategy (MSTR) faces an uncertain start to 2026 after a challenging 2025, during which its stock plummeted 49.3%. The stock currently trades at 52-week lows amid significant headwinds.
The most significant near-term risk centers on a looming MSCI decision. By January 15, MSCI will determine whether to reclassify MicroStrategy as a "fund." This potential exclusion follows a nearly $90 billion erosion in the company's market capitalization over the prior six months.
If reclassified, the move could trigger substantial pressure on the stock. Analysts estimate forced selling from index-tracking funds could reach $8.8 billion.
Compounding these challenges, MicroStrategy expects to report a sizable multi-billion dollar loss for the fourth quarter of 2025. This anticipated loss stems directly from a 24% decline in the price of Bitcoin during the period, underscoring the volatility inherent in the company’s cryptocurrency holding strategy.