Shares of Novo Nordisk extended their slide on September 14, falling 3.5% to €36.89 and deepening a rout that has erased roughly 7.6% in just seven trading days. The trigger: Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal-weight, with analyst Thibault Boutherin warning the valuation "does not entirely reflect subdued mid-term growth or the implications of the semaglutide patent cliff on Novo's terminal value."

  • Three-Quarters of Revenue Rides on One Drug The core problem is semaglutide — the compound behind Ozempic and Wegovy — which generated roughly 75% of Novo's 2026 revenue. Patent protection on the injectable version expires in the early-to-mid 2030s in the U.S. and Europe.

Generic semaglutide is not expected in the United States until at least the end of 2031.

Internationally, the composition patent already expired in India, China, and several other markets in April 2026, with over 40 generic products in development in India alone. That means revenue erosion may begin on the periphery well before the U.S. cliff arrives.

  • Growth Is Stalling While Eli Lilly Pulls Away Morgan Stanley forecasts just 2–3% revenue and operating-profit growth in 2027 and a roughly 4% annual growth rate through 2030 — lagging the broader European pharma sector's expected 4% revenue and 7% profit growth over the same period. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly now holds 60.1% of the U.S. GLP-1 market versus Novo's 39.4%, a gap that widened sharply after Lilly's competing drugs and its new oral pill attracted 20,000 prescriptions in its first 20 days, with 80% of patients entirely new to GLP-1 therapy.

  • The Stock Is Cheap — But Maybe for Good Reason At €36.89, Novo trades roughly 32% below its 52-week high of €54.86.

Morgan Stanley's 250 Danish krone price target implies more than 10% further downside.

Some valuation models peg fair value far higher , but cheap multiples matter little if the revenue base is shrinking.

  • One Near-Term Catalyst Remains Morgan Stanley sees few positive catalysts before Novo's September 21 capital markets day, where management must convince investors it has a credible post-semaglutide pipeline. Until then, the stock is a falling knife waiting for a story to catch it.