On Holding Loses Its CEO and Its Growth Story in the Same Week — Can the Founders Steer a $27 Billion Brand Through the Turbulence?
Shares of On Holding sank for a second straight day, trading at $33.72 (–4.1%) on March 26, after tumbling 11% the session before. The Swiss sneaker maker is reeling from a one-two punch: a surprise CEO exit and revenue guidance that left Wall Street cold.
The Man Who Built the Financial Machine Is Walking Away
Martin Hoffmann spent 13 years at On — first as CFO, then five years as CEO — engineering the financial framework behind its transformation from Swiss startup to global brand.
The market reacted sharply to the loss of Hoffmann, often considered the "face" of the company for investors.
Effective May 1, co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti will become Co-CEOs while remaining Executive Co-Chairmen. That dual role raises a governance red flag: founders simultaneously chairing the board and running day-to-day operations limits independent oversight at a critical scaling moment.
The Revenue Outlook Missed by a Wide Margin
FY2026 revenue guidance of roughly $4.3 billion came in below consensus of approximately $4.6 billion — a gap of about 7%. While "at least 23%" constant-currency growth would still be faster than most competitors, it represents a slowdown from the 35.6% constant-currency growth On saw in fiscal 2025 and was below analyst consensus of about CHF 3.7 billion.
Telsey expects a foreign-exchange headwind of around 900 basis points (9 percentage points), resulting in reported sales growth of roughly 14%. For a stock trading at a P/E of ~60, any deceleration gets punished fast.
Analysts Are Cutting Targets but Mostly Holding On
Guggenheim's Simeon Siegel cut his price target from $59 to $51 while reiterating a Buy rating.
Telsey's Cristina Fernandez lowered her target to $60 from $65, keeping Outperform. The outlier: Jefferies' Randal Konik maintained a Sell rating at $30, interpreting the restructuring as a response to rising competitive pressures, particularly from Nike.
Shares have now fallen 25% year-to-date in 2026.
The Departing CEO's Share Conversion Adds Selling Pressure
Hoffmann has been granted rights to convert 16.25 million high-vote Class B shares into 1.625 million tradeable Class A shares at the May AGM, with sales capped at 5% of average daily volume over any five-trading-day period for 18 months. That's an orderly exit, but it signals a founder unwinding his stake — never a confidence-builder for shareholders watching a stock near its 52-week low.
The bottom line: On delivered a record CHF 3 billion+ in 2025 sales, but investors are paying for future growth. A slowing trajectory, a leadership vacuum, and a departing insider selling shares make this a prove-it story now, not a benefit-of-the-doubt one.