Shares of Palantir Technologies jumped 3.0% to €108.58 on the Frankfurt exchange as two catalysts converged: a successful protest that killed a Pentagon contract the company viewed as unfair, and a bullish earnings revision from Citi. The move comes just days after Palantir's blowout Q2 report, raising a sharp question — how much more good news can this valuation absorb?
• Palantir Forced a Spy Agency to Back Down — and Opened a New Contract Lane. Palantir protested a Defense Intelligence Agency bid for a military intelligence system called ASTRA, and by late July the DIA withdrew the solicitation entirely.
The company argued the agency was trying to build a custom system from scratch when federal rules generally require buying commercial, off-the-shelf solutions if they can do the job.
When agencies withdraw solicitations after protests, they typically must re-solicit with revised terms — meaning a new ASTRA-related contract opportunity could emerge in coming months , potentially tilted toward Palantir's existing products.
• Citi Sees Faster Growth Than the Rest of Wall Street. Citi analyst Tyler Radke projects fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 53%, well above the Street's 45% estimate, with commercial growth at 67% year-over-year. He trimmed his price target to $200 from $225 but maintained a Buy rating.
Radke expects commercial growth to rebound after an unexpected Q1 slowdown, citing stronger partner feedback and expansion into new industries.
• Q2 Earnings Already Validated the Bull Case — Massively. Palantir's Q2 revenue climbed 93% to $1.94 billion, crushing the $1.80 billion consensus, while net income hit $1.07 billion — more than triple the year-ago quarter.
U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% to $764 million.
The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15 billion, representing 82% year-over-year growth.
• The Valuation Puzzle Remains Unsolved. Skeptics highlight Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio near 422 times , a level that assumes years of flawless execution. Even management acknowledges the runway: trailing 12-month Pentagon revenue remains below 0.25% of the defense budget , suggesting room to grow — but also that much of the opportunity is still theoretical. As one analysis noted, the Q2 beat "did not erase the structural arguments the bear case rests on. The valuation arithmetic has not changed in kind, only in degree."