Shares of Qualcomm plunged 10.2% to $225.50 on Monday morning as traders locked in gains from a blistering rally and rotated money toward Nvidia following its blockbuster announcement at Computex 2026. QCOM had risen 27.2% in just one week , fueled by a deal with TikTok owner ByteDance to supply millions of custom AI chips for data centers . Now, Nvidia's splashy entrance into the PC chip market is forcing investors to recalibrate how much of the AI premium Qualcomm really deserves.
Nvidia Just Entered Qualcomm's Home Turf — With Microsoft's Backing
Nvidia unveiled its new all-in-one PC chip at Computex, boasting one petaflop of AI power with 6,144 GPU cores and 20 Arm CPU cores — designed to compete directly with Qualcomm's latest laptop processors . Confirmed launch partners include Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft Surface, and Asus , the same OEMs that currently ship Qualcomm-powered Windows laptops. Systems will arrive in fall 2026 , putting immediate competitive pressure on Qualcomm's PC business right as AI-capable laptops become the industry's growth story.
The ByteDance Deal Was Real — But the Market Wants More Proof
The ByteDance agreement involves millions of custom chips for AI data centers, representing Qualcomm's largest entry yet into a segment traditionally dominated by Nvidia . However, Qualcomm's data center revenue is currently zero — if the program scales, its valuation discount to peers narrows, but if it stalls, the stock looks expensive against a handset earnings base still under pressure . UBS says the data center program would need to generate roughly $10 billion in revenue to justify the recent rally .
The Apple Headwind Hasn't Gone Away
Qualcomm's CFO confirmed the company holds only about 20% of this fall's iPhone chip orders, with UBS estimating Apple's shift to in-house modems creates a $4–5 billion annual revenue hole . Record automotive revenue of $1.33 billion (+38% year-over-year) helps, but auto and IoT are growing on a slower pace than the smartphone business is shrinking .
June 24 Is the Make-or-Break Date
Qualcomm's data center and AI engagements with major cloud companies are set to ship later in 2026, and the thesis will be tested at the June 24 Investor Day when management quantifies the opportunity . At a forward price-to-earnings ratio (what investors pay per dollar of expected profit) of roughly 17x, QCOM trades at a discount to the broader chip sector — a gap that reflects the market still pricing it as a phone company . Whether that discount closes or widens hinges entirely on how credibly Amon can show that Qualcomm is more than a smartphone chipmaker being squeezed from both sides.