Shares cratered to $33.00, down 14.8%, as a sweeping selloff in semiconductor and AI stocks ripped through global markets. An index of U.S. semiconductor companies is on track for its worst week since last year's "liberation day" rout, as investors dumped some of the biggest winners from the AI boom. SoftBank, the Japanese conglomerate that has staked its future on artificial intelligence, is absorbing outsized punishment — and for shareholders, the damage goes far beyond one bad day.
The AI Trade That Made SoftBank Soar Is Now Dragging It Down Faster
SoftBank's complicated web of cross-holdings and its track record of mistimed bets means investors treat its stock with extra volatility — when tech sentiment sours, it typically gets hit harder than pure-play tech names.
Arm and OpenAI collectively represent nearly 70% of SoftBank's valuation. On Thursday, SoftBank dropped 8.8% in Tokyo while chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron lost 9% and Advantest slid 9.4%.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell almost 4%, with Arm Holdings dropping more than 5%.
$3.3 Trillion in Chip Losses Show This Isn't Just Profit-Taking
Going into Friday's trading session, global semiconductor stocks had shed $3.3 trillion in market value since June 22. The trigger isn't weak demand — TSMC raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $60–$64 billion, but investors worried the industry's aggressive investment cycle might be increasingly difficult to justify. Strategist Andrew Jackson called it "an unwinding of crowded AI momentum trades rather than a deterioration in the sector's long-term fundamentals." Nine of eighteen Fed policymakers now support higher rates this year , making high-growth bets like SoftBank's harder to sustain.
A $64.6 Billion OpenAI Bet With No Public Price Tag — Yet
SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI totals $64.6 billion, representing approximately 13% ownership.
Its Vision Fund arm recorded roughly $46 billion in investment gains over the 12 months through March, with OpenAI's fair value reaching $79.6 billion against a $34.6 billion cost. But those are paper gains. Concerns persist that OpenAI could struggle to secure demand at a $1 trillion IPO valuation , and while OpenAI generates $2 billion in monthly revenue, it is still burning cash and is not yet profitable.
The Holding-Company Discount Could Widen Again
SoftBank's March net asset value per share implied a 49.4% discount to stated NAV — a gap that narrowed during the AI rally. If sentiment continues to deteriorate, that discount snaps back. Significant interest-bearing debt and asset concentration pose ongoing risks. Without an OpenAI IPO to crystallize value, shareholders own a leveraged bet on private-market valuations that the public market is now actively repricing.