Shares of SoftBank Group slid 5.2% to $16.75 on Thursday, retreating sharply after an 11%-plus surge earlier this week fueled by reports the conglomerate had resumed talks on a roughly $10 billion loan backed by its stake in OpenAI. With no new catalyst today, the pullback looks like classic profit-taking — but the underlying deal negotiations reveal how SoftBank is trying to turn a massive, illiquid AI bet into usable financial firepower. SoftBank's Post-Rally Pullback Raises a Bigger Question: Can a $65 Billion OpenAI Bet Be Monetized Without an IPO?
Shares of SoftBank Group dropped 5.2% to $16.75 on Thursday, giving back a sizable chunk of an 11%-plus surge earlier this week triggered by renewed talks on a $10 billion margin loan backed by the company's OpenAI stake. No new headline drove today's selloff — this is profit-taking, plain and simple. But the seesaw trading exposes a deeper investor anxiety: SoftBank has made one of the largest venture bets in history, and turning it into cash is proving far harder than expected.
The $10 Billion Loan Keeps Hitting Walls
SoftBank originally sought at least $10 billion through this loan before scaling its target down to roughly $6 billion after Wall Street lenders hesitated — and the process ultimately halted before these current talks resumed.
This time, SoftBank is offering a corporate guarantee on the $10 billion loan, giving banks recourse to the company itself if the OpenAI collateral proves insufficient. That concession shifts risk back onto SoftBank's own balance sheet — a meaningful trade-off for shareholders.
A $40 Billion Bridge Loan Comes Due in Eight Months
Adding to the urgency is SoftBank's broader financial structure: the company faces a $40 billion bridge loan repayment deadline in March 2027 related to its OpenAI investment.
Reports that OpenAI's initial public offering has been pushed back to 2027 or later triggered a prior wave of selling. Without a near-term IPO giving public-market pricing to its stake, SoftBank must keep layering debt or selling other assets to stay liquid.
The Bet Is Enormous — and Deeply Illiquid
SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI is expected to total $64.6 billion, representing an ownership interest of approximately 13%.
Its stake is now valued at around $99.3 billion, putting SoftBank up more than $50 billion on the position. On paper, that is spectacular. In practice, the negotiations underscore lenders' reluctance to accept stakes in privately held companies as collateral because such assets are more difficult to value and liquidate than publicly traded shares.
What Investors Should Watch
OpenAI confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering in June , which could eventually resolve the liquidity problem. Until then, every SoftBank financing maneuver — margin loans, bridge extensions, asset sales — will be scrutinized for signs of balance-sheet strain. The stock's violent round-trip this week is a reminder: the market loves the idea of SoftBank's AI gains but remains deeply skeptical about when shareholders will actually see them.