Shares of SoftBank Group shifted higher again on Thursday, trading at $24.22, up 3.4% from the prior close, extending a rally that has seen the stock climb roughly 15% in just one week from its May 22 low of $21.10. The move signals growing investor appetite for SoftBank's sprawling exposure to artificial intelligence — but the question remains whether the conglomerate's actual holdings can support the momentum. SoftBank Rides the AI Wave Past $24, but Is Masayoshi Son's $65 Billion OpenAI Gamble Worth the Price of Admission?
Shares of SoftBank Group climbed 3.4% to $24.22 on Thursday, extending a blistering rally that has lifted the stock roughly 15% from its May 22 close of $21.10. The gain is the latest ripple from a week in which the conglomerate's market cap exploded — adding over $61 billion in just two days after Nvidia's blockbuster earnings boosted AI-linked stocks . For shareholders, the open question is whether the momentum reflects durable value or a crowded trade riding a single theme.
Nvidia's Blowout Results Lit the Fuse, and Arm Kept It Burning. SoftBank shares had declined for five straight sessions before surging nearly 20% in Tokyo the day after Nvidia reported . SoftBank owns roughly nine-tenths of Arm, the chip-design company whose technology powers smartphones, servers, and a growing range of AI computing systems . Arm shares advanced over 16% overnight, amplifying SoftBank's gains . When Arm moves, SoftBank's net asset value — the total worth of everything it holds — moves with it.
A $65 Billion Bet on OpenAI Is About to Be Tested. SoftBank invested roughly $32.4 billion in OpenAI during the fiscal year ended March 2026, with another $30 billion committed, bringing total exposure to about $64.6 billion for a stake of around 13% . OpenAI is reportedly preparing to file its IPO prospectus, with a public debut targeted for the fall . A successful listing would convert a massive paper gain into a price the whole market can see — and potentially trade against.
Record Profits Mask Rising Debt Costs. SoftBank reported a net profit of $31.4 billion for fiscal 2025, with net asset value estimated at around $300 billion . But that firepower comes at a price: the company paid its highest-ever interest rate on dollar bonds — an 8.5% coupon on a 10-year tranche — underscoring market concern about the scale of its AI spending . It is also preparing hybrid bonds with a 35-year maturity worth roughly $1.6 billion to fund further AI expansion .
The Holding-Company Discount Hasn't Disappeared. Analysts caution that investors typically apply a discount to holding companies like SoftBank because shareholders do not always fully benefit from the underlying asset value . For years, much of SoftBank's worth has been locked in private, hard-to-price companies, and its stock has persistently traded below its net asset value by an estimated high-20% range . The OpenAI IPO could narrow that gap — or, if it disappoints, widen it.