Silver Gets Hammered by Hot Inflation and a Hawkish Fed — Can SLV Recover, or Is the Precious Metals Rally Over?

Shares of the iShares Silver Trust cratered 5.4% to $65.00 on March 19, as a one-two punch of scorching wholesale inflation and a Federal Reserve unwilling to cut rates sent non-yielding assets into a tailspin. SLV has now lost over 10% in the past two weeks , and sits 15% below its March 12 close of $76.48 — a punishing stretch for a metal that hit an all-time high of $121.64 per ounce just seven weeks ago.

• Wholesale Prices Doubled Forecasts, and the Worst May Be Ahead. February's PPI — a measure of what producers pay for goods and services — surged 0.7% month-over-month, with core PPI up 0.5%, both roughly double the 0.3% economists expected.

None of this data yet reflects wartime energy costs, meaning inflation was already a problem before oil spiked. For silver, which produces no income, hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer — and that makes yield-bearing assets like Treasury bonds relatively more attractive.

• The Fed Held Rates and Raised Its Inflation Forecast. The central bank kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% and its "dot plot" pointed to just one cut this year — with seven of 19 officials expecting no cuts at all in 2026.

Officials now see year-end inflation at 2.7%, up from December's 2.5% projection. Chair Powell was blunt: the forecast is progress on inflation, "not as much as we had hoped."

Futures traders have pushed the next expected rate cut out to at least December.

• Rising Yields Make Silver's Zero Income a Bigger Problem. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.265%, while the 2-year note jumped over 10 basis points to 3.775%. Every tick higher in yields raises the "opportunity cost" of holding silver — investors forgo real income to own a bar of metal. Analysts note some investors are liquidating bullion holdings to meet margin calls elsewhere, compounding the selloff.

• The Bigger Picture: A 37% Crash From Record Highs, With Oil Adding Uncertainty. Silver is now down roughly 28% from its 2025 peak of $121/oz , and solar manufacturers are actively substituting cheaper copper — a shift that could reduce $15 billion in costs and structurally dent the ~60% of silver demand that comes from industrial users.

Some strategists warn the Fed "may even start talking about rate hikes later this year" if oil stays elevated. For SLV holders, the calculus is stark: until inflation cools or the Fed pivots, every data point is a headwind.