Shares of iShares Silver Trust jumped 3.96% to $65.44 Wednesday after news broke that the Trump administration delivered a 15-point peace proposal to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries, sparking a broad risk-on rally across commodities and equities. The move reverses a punishing slide that dragged SLV from $68.70 on March 18 to $61.52 by Friday — a stretch during which silver lost nearly 19% in just ten days.
A Ceasefire Proposal Is Moving Markets — But Iran Hasn't Said Yes
The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, according to two regional sources and a U.S. official, delivered through Pakistan — but it was not immediately clear if Iran has agreed to any of the points.
A top Iranian military official scoffed at the idea of talks. For SLV holders, today's bounce is built on hope, not agreement — a critical distinction given the Trump administration prefers negotiating under fire, and U.S. and Israeli officials are planning for another two to three weeks of war regardless.
The Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Price Driver
Silver's wild swings trace directly to oil and shipping disruptions. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years, rising to $126 at its peak after Iran effectively shut the strait. Despite the apparent setback in talks, oil tumbled more than 4% in Wednesday morning trading as Iran signaled it would let some vessels through — easing inflation fears that had crushed risk assets, silver included.
Silver's Fundamentals Remain Strong Beneath the Volatility
2026 marks the sixth consecutive year of global silver supply deficit, with industrial demand "exploding" from solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers.
JPMorgan still expects silver to average $81 per ounce in 2026 , well above today's ~$73 spot price. That structural shortage gives SLV a floor, but prices will react strongly to the March 28 deadline for the U.S.-Iran strike postponement — if there is new military action near Iran's energy centers, silver could quickly become very volatile again.
The Bottom Line for SLV Holders: Don't Mistake a Bounce for a Trend
SLV sits 40% below its 52-week high of $109.83, still deep in correction territory. Market capitalization stands at roughly $33 billion. The ETF simply mirrors silver's spot price, so its fate hinges entirely on whether diplomacy holds. With officials saying another two to three weeks of war is planned even if talks take place , investors should expect continued whiplash — not resolution.