Shares of the iShares Silver Trust plunged 6.0% to $64.61 on March 19, extending a brutal week that has erased 15.5% since March 12, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report collided with a hawkish Federal Reserve.

  • Wholesale Prices Blew Past Forecasts, and the Fed Noticed. The producer price index — a measure of what businesses pay for goods — jumped 0.7% in February, more than double the 0.3% economists expected. Core PPI, stripping out food and energy, rose 0.5%, also above consensus.

On a 12-month basis, PPI inflation hit 3.4%, the highest since February 2025. For silver, which generates no income, hotter inflation means interest rates stay higher for longer — making Treasury bonds comparatively more attractive and draining money out of precious metals.

  • The Fed Held Rates and Dimmed Hopes for Cuts. The Federal Reserve kept its key rate at 3.5%–3.75% while highlighting "uncertain" impacts from the Iran war.

The dot plot — a chart showing where each official expects rates to go — pointed to just one cut this year, with seven of 19 members signaling no cuts at all, one more hawk than December. Chair Powell said progress on inflation was "not as much as we had hoped." Fewer rate cuts mean higher "opportunity cost" for holding silver — investors forgo the yield they could earn in bonds.

  • Rising Oil Prices Are Making Everything Worse. Oil prices surged after the Trump administration pressed allies on Strait of Hormuz security, with Brent crude at $106.18 and WTI near $100.66 per barrel.

These energy costs amplified the hot PPI reading and added to inflation fears.

The 10-year Treasury yield traded up more than 6 basis points to 4.265% — a direct headwind for non-yielding assets like silver.

  • ETF Outflows Signal More Than Just a Bad Day. SLV and similar silver ETFs have seen "massive outflows" as money rotates into the U.S. dollar and short-term Treasuries.

SLV broke below its 50-day moving average on March 11, signaling a shift from an upward to a downward trend. With the fund down from a 52-week high of $107.35, the selloff exposes the core tension in silver: it's caught between its role as a store of value and its sensitivity to interest rates.

The bottom line: Until inflation cools enough for the Fed to resume cutting, silver faces a math problem — Treasury bonds now pay more for less risk. Long-term structural demand from solar panels, EVs, and AI hardware could put a floor under prices , but in the near term, macro forces have the upper hand.