Silver's Worst Week in Months: Can SLV Weather an Inflation Storm That Won't Quit?

Shares of the iShares Silver Trust plunged -3.3% to $63.55 on March 20, extending what has become a brutal five-session rout that has erased 13.2% of SLV's value since March 13. The trigger: a February Producer Price Index (PPI) — a measure of wholesale inflation — that surged 0.7% month-over-month, more than double the 0.3% economists had forecast. For holders of silver, an asset that pays no interest or dividends, the implications are severe.

• Wholesale Prices Just Blew Past Every Forecast — Twice in a Row

February's 0.7% PPI jump followed January's 0.5% rise, making it the biggest monthly increase in seven months, with goods prices soaring 1.1%.

On an annual basis, headline PPI hit 3.4% — the highest in a year — while core PPI reached 3.9%. That's nearly double the Fed's 2% target, and it means the cost of holding silver instead of a Treasury bond keeps climbing.

• The Fed Just Killed the Rate-Cut Dream

The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on March 19, but its updated projections slashed expected 2026 rate cuts from three to one or possibly zero, with some hawkish members even hinting at a hike if inflation doesn't cool by summer.

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.29%, its highest level in months. Higher yields make bonds more attractive relative to silver, which generates no income — a direct headwind for SLV.

• Geopolitics and Oil Are Making Everything Worse

Fed officials acknowledged that the economic implications of the U.S. conflict with Iran remain "uncertain."

Brent crude has reached $108/barrel and WTI $98, compounding energy-driven inflation. Normally, geopolitical fear helps silver as a safe haven, but right now the inflation side of the equation is winning — rising yields outweigh war-risk demand.

• Silver's Long-Term Story Hasn't Changed, But the Short-Term Math Has

Supply deficits are projected for a sixth consecutive year, with industrial demand nearing 650 million ounces, bolstered by solar installations, EV expansion, and AI infrastructure. Yet SLV has posted a -10.24% loss over the last two weeks , proving that macro forces — especially real yields — can overwhelm even strong fundamentals. Until inflation data turns, SLV holders face a painful waiting game.