Shares of iShares Silver Trust surged 3.1% to $64.88 in after-hours trading on March 25, reversing a sharp intraday slide after President Trump claimed a "very significant" energy deal was in the works with Iran. The rebound caps a volatile session that saw silver futures swing wildly on conflicting Mideast signals — and leaves investors wondering whether the metal's next move hinges more on diplomacy than fundamentals. Silver's Headline-Driven Rollercoaster: Can SLV Investors Trust a Rally Built on Conflicting Diplomacy?
Shares of iShares Silver Trust jumped 3.1% to $64.88 after hours, clawing back from an intraday rout triggered by Mideast de-escalation hopes — then reignited by President Trump's claim of a breakthrough energy deal with Iran. The whipsaw encapsulates a market where every diplomatic utterance rewrites the trade, and SLV holders face a simple question: is this recovery durable, or just the next turn of the roulette wheel?
Silver Has Lost Nearly Half Its Value in Weeks — And Geopolitics Is the Reason
Silver has lost nearly half its value since hitting an all-time high of $121.67 in January , a stunning collapse for an asset many expected to benefit from crisis. The culprit is counterintuitive: surging energy prices from the Iran war have reduced prospects for near-term rate cuts, a scenario that bodes poorly for precious metals . Higher rates raise the cost of holding assets like silver that pay no income, pushing traders to sell even during a war.
Trump Says "Deal," Iran Says "Fake News" — Markets Are Trading on Fog
Trump said the U.S. and Iran held talks about resolving the war, although Iranian media denied discussions had taken place.
Iran's parliament speaker called Trump's account "fakenews used to manipulate financial and oil markets." For SLV investors, the contradiction is the risk itself: a confirmed deal could crater silver's remaining geopolitical premium, while a collapse in talks could reignite panic selling as rate-hike fears return.
Oil Is the Hidden Driver of Silver's Price
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to surging energy prices for almost four weeks; oil prices fell Wednesday with Brent crude dropping ~5% to $99.13/barrel. Cheaper oil eases inflation fears, which makes rate cuts more likely — and that is what lifts silver. As stocks rose, Treasury yields and the dollar retreated, and traders reduced bets on Fed tightening, pricing in some easing.
The Structural Bull Case Hasn't Disappeared Beneath the volatility, the silver market remains in a multiyear structural deficit, with demand exceeding mine supply by roughly 160–200 million ounces, and limited new mining projects mean the deficit is likely to continue.
Silver production has struggled to keep pace for years, and most silver is mined as a by-product of other metals, meaning output can't be ramped up quickly even when prices surge. That supply squeeze provides a floor — but only once the geopolitical noise settles. Until then, SLV remains a hostage to headlines.