S&P Global (SPGI) released a new study on January 8, 2026, warning of a significant future deficit in the global copper supply. The report, titled "Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification," projects a major clash between surging demand and constrained production.
The study projects copper demand will surge 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040. This increase is driven by three primary factors: accelerating electrification, the growth of artificial intelligence (AI), and increased defense spending.
This demand surge clashes with constrained production. S&P Global predicts the global copper supply will peak in 2030. This disconnect could lead to a supply deficit of 10 million metric tons by 2040.
Daniel Yergin, S&P Global’s Vice Chairman, stated the situation poses a "systemic risk for global industries, technological advancement and economic growth." He warned that copper could become a bottleneck to innovation.