Bloomberg Economics estimates a potential war over Taiwan would cost the global economy approximately $10.6 trillion. This figure represents roughly 9.6% of global GDP.
The analysis identifies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) as the critical vulnerability in the global technology supply chain. A conflict would severely curtail access to the advanced semiconductors that power AI data centers, smartphones, and vehicles.
This geopolitical risk assessment arrives as TSMC stock trades near record highs. The company reported its highest-ever monthly revenue in January, driven by unprecedented demand for AI hardware.