A new KFF analysis projects Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace enrollments could fall by 17% to 26% in 2026. The healthcare policy organization's study incorporates data from Wakely Consulting Group. This forecast estimates that 3.8 million to 5.8 million people could drop coverage.
The projected decline follows the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025. This expiration increases premium costs for millions of consumers.
UnitedHealth Group faces potential reductions in both membership and revenue. The forecast introduces uncertainty for a health insurance sector that recently experienced record enrollment from the subsidies.