The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its August Oil Market Report that global oil stockpiles are rapidly depleting. Geopolitical disruptions and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz transit impasse continue to restrict market supply.
The agency lowered its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd). It also reduced the 2026 world oil demand projection by 1.6 million bpd.
High fuel prices and disrupted supply chains are currently weighing on global consumption. OPEC also lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast for the fourth consecutive month. These shrinking inventory buffers and persistent supply risks maintain upward pressure on oil prices.