The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report on May 14, 2026. A blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is causing an unprecedented supply shock. Global oil inventories are currently depleting at a record pace. More than 14 million barrels per day of production capacity is offline. This disruption represents nearly 15% of the total global oil supply.
The IEA expects global oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day in 2026. This forecast marks a significant downward revision from previous estimates. Observable global oil stocks, including crude at sea, shrank by 250 million barrels during March and April. The daily drawdown rate reached 4 million barrels during this period. Rapid depletion ahead of the peak summer season suggests further price volatility.
OPEC released its own monthly report on May 14, 2026. The group forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. This projection is a reduction from OPEC's prior estimates. Conflicting reports from the IEA and OPEC increase uncertainty in a market strained by Middle East tensions.