OPEC+ is expected to pause its series of oil-production quota hikes after a final, smaller increase in September, according to delegates familiar with the group's thinking. The plan is to ratify a 188,000 barrel-a-day increase for September at the upcoming August 2nd meeting and then hold production levels steady for the remainder of the year. This signals a more cautious approach as the group assesses volatile market conditions and the supply impacts of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
The decision comes amid significant price swings, with Brent crude having recently surpassed $100 a barrel before falling back below $90. The ongoing disruptions to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have added a layer of uncertainty to supply, making the producer group hesitant to commit to further output increases beyond September. By pausing, OPEC+ retains flexibility to react to market changes without locking in higher quotas for the rest of 2026.