Viasat's Massive Post-Earnings Rout Erases 16% in Two Days — Can Record Backlog Save a Stock That Some Call 245% Overvalued?

Shares of Viasat skidded another 6.2% to $61.76 on June 16, extending a punishing two-day post-earnings selloff that has now sliced roughly 16% off the satellite communications company's market value. On June 15, VSAT shares fell 6.1%, closing at $65.90 , and the bleeding continued today as investors digested a quarter that beat on earnings but missed where it counts most — the top line and profitability.

• Revenue Missed and Margins Disappointed Despite an EPS Beat. Viasat posted an EPS of -$0.02, crushing the -$0.43 forecast for a 95% surprise, but revenue came in at $1.17 billion — 2.4% below the StreetAccount consensus of $1.19 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA (a proxy for cash-based operating profit) fell 1% year-over-year and landed 3.5% below consensus estimates. For a stock that had rocketed higher on turnaround hopes, missing both revenue and EBITDA targets signals the recovery may be slower than bulls anticipated.

• The Consumer Satellite Business Is Shrinking. Viasat faced a decline in fixed residential services and maritime revenue, weighing on overall growth.

The Communication Services segment fell 2% year-over-year , even as the defense unit grew 12%. This lopsided mix matters because the consumer segment historically carries higher margins, and its erosion amid fierce competition from low-Earth-orbit rivals pressures the company's profit engine.

• Insiders Sold Aggressively Into the Rally. CEO Mark Dankberg sold 400,000 shares on June 8 for approximately $25.9 million.

Total insider selling hit $32.1 million over the past three months, with no buying activity reported. When a CEO and board members monetize stock en masse — even under pre-arranged plans — it undermines confidence that management sees meaningful near-term upside.

• Record Backlog and FY2027 Guidance Offer a Lifeline — Barely. Viasat reported record backlog of approximately $4.1 billion, up 15%.

Management introduced fiscal 2027 guidance roughly 1% above consensus on both revenue and EBITDA.

Needham raised its price target to $90 maintaining a Buy rating, while Barclays held an Equalweight rating with a $49 target — a $41 gap that captures the deep disagreement over Viasat's trajectory. With a 52-week range of $12.40 to $89.79 and at least one valuation model pegging fair value at just $19.11 , the stock sits at a crossroads between a defense-fueled turnaround story and a highly leveraged bet still struggling for consistent growth.