The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies concludes the U.S. Air Force would likely fail to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2035. Current modernization plans lack the capacity and survivability required for high-intensity conflict. The report specifically identifies a deficiency in generating long-range penetrating strikes.
Wargame simulations found that current force structures cannot prevent China from establishing a lodgment on Taiwan. This failure stems from an inability to sustain attacks against the Chinese mainland.
A second simulation showed that an aggressively modernized force featuring more B-21 stealth bombers and next-generation fighters fared better. This advanced force successfully disrupted invasion logistics and command by striking deep into Chinese territory.
Authors recommend accelerating the procurement of B-21 bombers and new fighter jets. The report also calls for enhanced airbase defenses in the Pacific and a reallocation of budget priorities toward the Air Force and Navy. These findings increase pressure on the Pentagon and Congress to boost investment in advanced airpower programs from top defense contractors.