The global smartphone market will face its largest-ever decline in 2026, according to research firm IDC. Shipments are projected to fall 12.9% to 1.12 billion units, down from 1.26 billion in 2025.
A severe shortage and price surge for DRAM and NAND memory chips will drive this contraction. The AI sector is causing the scarcity by prioritizing high-bandwidth memory for data centers.
Average selling prices for smartphones are forecasted to climb 14% to a record $523. Low-end Android manufacturers face the greatest risk, with some smaller players potentially exiting the market. Premium manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung are positioned to absorb costs and potentially increase market share. IDC expects the supply constraints to persist until at least mid-2027.