Shares shifted sharply upward after Apple told suppliers to prepare 10 million units of its first foldable iPhone, a roughly 30% increase over previous targets. The stock surged over 12% in five trading days, adding approximately $491.7 billion to Apple's market capitalization . The rally signals enormous investor confidence, but at a current price-to-earnings ratio that already stretches well past historical norms, the question is whether this untested product category can deliver the revenue to match the enthusiasm.
A Bigger Order Signals Apple Thinks Demand Will Be Real
Apple increased its production target from an earlier forecast of 7–8 million units to around 10 million . Analysts at IDC predict an average selling price around $2,500, with top configurations reaching $3,000 . Simple math: 10 million units at $2,500 each means roughly $25 billion in potential revenue from a single new product — equivalent to about a quarter of a typical iPhone quarter. That is real money, but it's also a first-generation device entering a category Samsung and Huawei have spent years refining.
Apple Is Outmuscling Rivals on Parts While They Scramble
Overall 2026 production is expected to exceed 220 million units, giving Apple a clear edge thanks to its supply-chain leverage . Rival smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have cut annual targets to below 100 million units amid a global memory chip shortage. Apple is even exploring supply agreements with sanctioned Chinese memory chipmakers , a move that could ease costs but invites regulatory risk.
Five New Models Aim to Cover Every Price Point
At least five new iPhone models across late 2026 and early 2027 mark one of Apple's most expansive rollouts in recent memory . The premium foldable and Pro models launch in September; standard and lightweight models follow in spring. Spreading launches across two windows keeps the revenue pipeline flowing — and gives Apple pricing power across budget, mid-range, and ultra-premium tiers simultaneously.
The Stock May Already Reflect the Good News
Apple's P/E ratio stands at 37.3x, significantly higher than its five-year median of 30.2x . One valuation model pegs intrinsic value at $267, suggesting the stock trades at a 15.6% premium . With Q3 earnings due July 30, investors are betting Apple can prove this premium is deserved — or risk a sharp pullback if foldable demand disappoints.