Stifel Slaps a $25 Target on Almonty — But Can a Tungsten Miner Riding China's Export Ban Really Double From Here?

Shares of Almonty Industries surged 10% to $13.64 Friday morning after Stifel analyst Brock Cannon initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $25 price target — implying potential upside of roughly 102% from the previous close . The call lands at a pivotal moment: the stock had slid nearly 9% the day before and was down 10.4% over the prior week. What investors need to decide is whether this is a bounce trade or the beginning of a structural repricing for the only Western-listed tungsten producer with real scale.

• A 30-Year-Dormant Mine Just Got Its License to Sell. Almonty received final operational certification on September 17, 2026, allowing its Sangdong Mine in South Korea to begin full commercial production of tungsten concentrate . That's not a future promise — it's a live revenue event. Phase 1 is designed to handle roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year . More than 90% of that output is already locked into a 21-year offtake agreement with a unit of Austria's Plansee Group , meaning cash flows start with contracted buyers, not spot-market hope.

• Tungsten Prices Have Exploded, and Washington Is Tightening the Supply Chain. Tungsten prices have risen approximately 775% since the start of 2025 following China's export controls on the metal . That tailwind is now structural: China controls about 80% of the tungsten supply, and U.S. defense procurement restrictions barring Chinese tungsten are expected to begin in 2027 . Almonty is one of very few producers that can offer a "Western address" to Pentagon procurement officers — a positioning no competitor can easily replicate.

• Wall Street Is Piling On, but the Stock Still Trades at a Deep Discount. Stifel is now the fourth major firm to initiate with a Buy. Oppenheimer holds a $25 target, Jefferies set $26.25, and D.A. Davidson sits at $33 . Even at today's pop, $13.64 sits roughly 44% below the 52-week high of $24.41 and far beneath every analyst target.

• The Phase 2 Bet Is Where the Real Upside Hides. A planned Phase 2 expansion, expected online in 2027, would double tungsten output to roughly 4,600 tonnes per year — enough to supply approximately 40% of non-Chinese global demand . Stifel also flagged additional upside from development of adjacent assets and construction of a downstream tungsten oxide facility . Execution risk is real, but if Almonty delivers, today's price could look cheap in hindsight.