ASML Crushes Q2 on Insatiable AI Chip Demand and Raises Guidance for the Third Time — But Can a 57x Earnings Multiple Keep Climbing?

Shares surged 5.2% in pre-market to $1,867.11 after ASML, the world's sole maker of the most advanced chipmaking machines, delivered a Q2 that blew past its own forecasts and Wall Street's expectations — then hiked its outlook for the full year again. The results are rippling across semiconductor stocks, but the question now is whether the AI spending boom already sits in ASML's price tag.

• Revenue and Profit Topped Every Estimate That Mattered

ASML posted revenue of €9.33 billion, a 21.3% year-over-year jump that beat consensus by roughly €400 million, while earnings per share of €7.59 topped forecasts by €0.60.

Gross margin hit 54%, well above the company's own 51–52% guidance. The upside came from an unexpected place: the installed-base business — revenue from servicing and upgrading machines already in chip factories — reached €2.8 billion, €300 million above plan, because "customers are really looking for productivity enhancements." Higher-margin service revenue is the kind of beat investors reward because it's recurring.

• A Third Guidance Raise Signals the AI Cycle Isn't Slowing

ASML lifted its full-year 2026 sales outlook to €43–€45 billion with gross margins of 54–56%. For context, the range stood at €36–€40 billion as recently as April , which itself was an increase. Q3 guidance of €11.0–€12.0 billion also exceeds the €10.37 billion analysts had penciled in. Three consecutive upward revisions strongly suggest demand is accelerating, not plateauing.

• The Valuation Already Prices In a Lot of Good News

ASML trades at roughly 57x trailing earnings , a steep premium even for a company with a near-monopoly. J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating with a $2,200 target , implying about 18% upside — solid, but not huge after today's pop. If AI capital spending even flattens, the stock's rich valuation leaves little cushion.

• Export Controls Remain the Wildcard

China is expected to account for about 20% of 2026 sales, with the main risk being stricter controls on advanced non-EUV systems, spare parts, and services — exactly the installed-base segment that drove this quarter's beat. CFO Roger Dassen noted that tighter restrictions could push revenue toward the low end of guidance, though "some of that demand could be absorbed by other customers."