Shares of Bitdeer Technologies surged 10.6% to $11.77 on Friday after H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese reiterated his Buy rating and $25 price target, spotlighting the company's rapid pivot from crypto mining to AI cloud infrastructure — a transformation that now carries billions in contracted promises but remains largely pre-revenue.
New Malaysia Contracts More Than Double the AI Backlog
Bitdeer on September 29 announced offtake commitments covering more than 70% of its roughly 21.7-megawatt A201 data center in Malaysia, representing more than $1.7 billion in expected revenue over five years.
The company now claims a total expected revenue backlog of approximately $2.9 billion. That's a staggering figure for a firm that generated just $620 million in total revenue in 2025, but investors should note these are expected figures over multi-year terms — Bitdeer expects no revenue contribution from its earlier Malaysia contract in 2026.
The Street Sees Big Upside, But the Stock Tells a Different Story
H.C. Wainwright's $25 target implies more than 100% upside from the current price.
Across 14 analysts, the consensus is "Strong Buy" with an average target of $21.79 — roughly 108% above today's price, with the range spanning from $10 to $35. Yet the stock has been grinding lower since late September, suggesting investors remain skeptical about execution and funding.
Customer Prepayments Could Ease the Cash Crunch
Bitdeer structures its AI Cloud contracts to require 50% or more in customer prepayments, a critical detail because building high-density GPU data centers is extremely capital-intensive. The company expects to fund development primarily through those prepayments, operating cash flow, and financing secured against contracted cash flows.
Gross margins sat at just 11.95% as of early 2026, and free cash flow remains negative, making self-funded expansion difficult.
The Bigger Picture: A $10 Billion Pipeline That Still Needs Proving
Bitdeer's active AI cloud pipeline now exceeds $10 billion, and the company is targeting up to 350 MW of AI data center capacity by Q1 2028.
H.C. Wainwright noted that "the GPU ramp in Malaysia is becoming too large for investors to overlook." Perhaps — but with facilities not energized until 2027, thin margins, and a stock still 57% below its 52-week high of $27.80, the market is pricing in execution risk, not the dream.