Shares of GLD surged 3.5% to $418.27 on Wednesday as traders seized on reports that the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan to end the 25-day war, sending gold futures above $4,500 and oil tumbling. The question investors need to answer: Is this a turning point or a dead-cat bounce in a fund that's still down more than 6% from its March 19 close of $444.74?
• A Ceasefire Plan Exists, but Iran Says It Doesn't — The Trump administration has proposed a temporary ceasefire and a 15-point plan to end the war on Iran, though Iran has vehemently denied any talks are taking place.
Trump says VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio are leading negotiations, expressing optimism that a deal is in sight. Markets are pricing in hope, not certainty. If talks collapse, gold could swing violently in either direction — the same diplomatic noise sent GLD tumbling from $509.70 (its 52-week high) to the low $400s in weeks.
• Falling Oil Eases Inflation — And That's a Double-Edged Sword for Gold — Oil fell on signals that the U.S. diplomatic push may be gathering pace, with Brent sinking as much as 7% to near $97 a barrel. Cheaper oil cools inflation fears, which reduces the urgency to hold gold as a hedge. A primary concern for gold traders is the potential for inflation that would prompt the Fed to raise interest rates. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost for gold investors by increasing the yield available from cash and interest-bearing assets. If de-escalation sticks, gold loses a key support pillar.
• The Strait of Hormuz Is Still the Real Variable — The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 19 days, choking off 20% of the world's oil supply.
Crude and oil product flows through the strait have plunged from around 20 million barrels per day before the war to a trickle. Until ships actually transit safely, the ceasefire talk premium in gold prices remains fragile.
• GLD's Wild Ride Reflects a Market That Can't Decide — GLD's 52-week range spans from $272.58 to $509.70 — a staggering 87% gap. Gold is down 13.4% over the past month , yet prices have risen over 25% since early 2025, fueled by ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. Today's rally reclaims barely a quarter of the recent selloff. Investors betting on peace should remember: Iran has denied the dialogue is taking place, attacks are ongoing, and sources say the U.S. will soon deploy troops to the Middle East.