Shares of Golar LNG surged 11.6% to $57.00 on August 13 after the company delivered a one-two punch: a strong earnings beat and a massive new shipbuilding commitment that together redraw the company's growth trajectory — and its risk profile.
Profits Jumped Even as Revenue Fell Short of Forecasts
Adjusted EBITDA — a measure of core operating profit — hit $127.4 million, up 159% from $49.3 million a year ago, powered partly by $37 million in realized gains on oil and gas hedging instruments tied to its Hilli vessel. Revenue of $130.5 million narrowly missed Wall Street's $143.3 million consensus. Analysts had expected earnings per share of just $0.47. The EBITDA blowout signals that Golar's floating LNG ships — essentially offshore gas-processing factories — are generating far more cash than the headline revenue line suggests, thanks to commodity-linked contract bonuses and overperformance on the Gimi vessel, where the invoiced day rate ran 15% above the contractual rate.
A $2.45 Billion Order That Reshapes the Fleet — Without a Customer Locked In
Golar signed a $2.45 billion construction contract with China's CIMC Raffles for a fourth floating LNG vessel with 3.5 million tonnes per year of capacity.
The order lifts controlled capacity roughly 40% to above 12 million tonnes per year. Critically, Golar does not yet have a finalized long-term charter for this vessel, though it says advanced commercial discussions are in progress. Ordering before locking in a customer is a calculated gamble: it secures the earliest available delivery slot globally by late 2029, but it loads billions in capital risk onto a company carrying $1.8 billion in net debt.
The Backlog Math Looks Compelling — If Execution Holds
Two existing long-term contracts alone are projected to deliver roughly $685 million in combined annual EBITDA — $285 million from the Hilli Argentina deal and $400 million from the Esperanza project — both on 20-year terms.
Management's outlook projects total company EBITDA reaching $800 million by 2028. At today's price, that would imply a low single-digit enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratio, which looks cheap — unless construction delays, commodity swings, or the ongoing Goldman Sachs-led strategic review exploring a potential sale, merger, or restructuring introduces uncertainty. Goldman Sachs itself carries a $66 price target on the stock , suggesting further upside, but the advisory dual role deserves investor scrutiny.
The market is now pricing in a bigger, bolder Golar. Whether the balance sheet can match the blueprint is the question that matters next.