Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) reports that a lasting outage in Qatar will shift the global LNG market into a significant supply deficit.
Damage to Qatari export facilities is more severe than previously understood. Approximately 2 Bcf/d of capacity will remain offline. EIR expects this capacity to stay offline until closer to 2030.
The market will flip to a structural deficit in 2026. This deficit will reach roughly 8 Bcf/d. EIR expects the supply gap to persist for several years.
Sustained competition for LNG cargoes between Europe and Asia will keep global natural gas prices elevated. Global tightness reinforces the strategic importance of North American LNG export projects. Competition for marginal cargoes will support strong demand for U.S. gas. Domestic Henry Hub prices will link more closely to international market volatility and higher global prices.