Shares shifted sharply as NVIDIA stunned investors with its first-ever year-ahead revenue forecast, projecting 70% fiscal 2028 growth — a figure that makes Wall Street's prior 44% consensus look timid. The stock surged 8.1% to $9.87 on the Buenos Aires exchange, reflecting the scale of the surprise. But beneath the headline number lies a more complex story about a company racing against its own supply chain.
• A $100 Billion Gap Between What NVIDIA Sees and What Analysts Expected
NVIDIA's projected growth would imply fiscal 2028 revenue in the range of $690 billion to $700 billion, more than $100 billion over the $570 billion analysts had been modeling.
Based on consensus projections for fiscal 2027 revenue of $396 billion, that would put NVIDIA ahead of Apple and Alphabet, behind only Amazon among U.S. tech companies by revenue. For shareholders, this isn't just a beat — it's a wholesale reset of the earnings trajectory they're pricing in.
• Demand Outstrips Supply — The 70% Is a Floor, Not a Ceiling
CFO Colette Kress framed the guidance with precision: the figure reflects what NVIDIA's supply chain can confidently deliver, not what customers are asking for. CEO Jensen Huang told analysts that "even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%." That distinction matters enormously: it means NVIDIA left potential revenue on the table, and any supply-chain improvement could push numbers higher.
• Rising Memory Costs Are Quietly Eating Into Profits
NVIDIA posted a 75% gross margin in Q2, but guided Q3 down to 74%, with a trough of 71%–72% in Q4 before recovering to 72%–73% in fiscal 2028. The culprit: high-bandwidth memory now accounts for an estimated 30%–40% of AI accelerator build cost, and only three companies on Earth make it.
NVIDIA has negotiated price increases that take effect in fiscal 2028, so this is a timing gap rather than a permanent loss of pricing power — but at $108 billion in guided Q3 revenue, every single margin point equals roughly $1.1 billion.
• The Quarterly Beat Reinforced the Bigger Story
NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue of $96.22 billion, more than doubling year-over-year and beating the $92.07 billion consensus by roughly $4 billion — its fourth consecutive quarter of growth, with net income up 126% year-over-year to approximately $60 billion. The results gave the year-ahead forecast immediate credibility.
The bottom line: NVIDIA is selling every chip it can make, and customers want more. Investors are betting the revenue surge overwhelms near-term margin pressure — a wager that only holds if AI spending keeps accelerating.