Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) raised its global oil price outlook due to escalating Middle East conflict. Brent crude is expected to average $95 per barrel for the remainder of 2026. Prices are projected to reach $100 per barrel in 2027.
The forecast hinges on the potential near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Each month the strait remains constrained adds $10 to $15 per barrel to the price outlook.
U.S. shale producers are expected to maintain limited production despite higher prices. Strict capital discipline and industry consolidation prevent these firms from quickly increasing output.
The International Energy Agency is initiating its largest-ever release of strategic petroleum reserves to counter the supply shock. EIR suggests these measures may not be sufficient to lower prices.