The United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially withdrew from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1, 2026. This departure allows the nation to prioritize its domestic strategy and increase oil production beyond previous group quotas. Analysts suggest the move undermines the cartel’s ability to maintain production discipline and control global prices.
Brent crude prices remain elevated at approximately US$109 per barrel. These price levels are driven by ongoing supply concerns related to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management predicts the traditional model of rigid quotas will be replaced by a looser, transactional alliance. This structural shift is expected to trigger higher price volatility and increased political sensitivity in global oil markets over the next few years.