Tesla faces a critical question in 2026 regarding the production ramp-up of its long-delayed Semi truck. The company targets producing up to 50,000 units annually. Production is slated for the Nevada facility by the end of 2026. This transition tests the Semi's viability as a commercially significant product, nearly a decade after its 2017 unveiling.
Significant execution risks remain, primarily concerning the supply of 4680 battery cells. Analysts suggest the total cost of ownership (TCO) may be slightly higher than best-in-class diesel alternatives. This higher TCO could slow adoption among fleet buyers. The coming year will determine the Semi's impact on the heavy-duty trucking industry.